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Challenge Simulator

Monte-Carlo a prop-firm funding challenge against its daily and total drawdown limits to estimate how often your edge actually passes.

1Challenge rules
Archetypes, not specific firms — adjust to your firm's exact rules. A 0% daily limit means no daily-drawdown rule.
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2Your edge & economics
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Challenge economics
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A single illustrative figure — your first realistic withdrawal once funded, not lifetime earnings.
2,000 runs · capped at 60 trading days · fixed-fractional risk on the starting balance.
Simulation
Pass probability
%
across 2,000 simulated challenges
Failure rate
Median days to pass
Risk per trade
Expectancy / trade
Daily-DD breaches
Total-DD breaches
Ran out of days
Days to pass · p25 / p75
Why runs fail (of non-passing runs)
Daily DDof failures
Total DDof failures
Out of daysof failures
Is the attempt worth it?
Expected valuepass% × payout − fee
Break-even pass %pass rate that makes EV = 0
Representative equity path
How it works

Your edge vs. the firm's rails

Each simulated challenge plays trade by trade, day by day. Every trade wins +R or loses −1 with your win rate. A run fails the moment intraday equity drops past the daily drawdown (measured from that day's starting balance) or past the total drawdown. The total drawdown is either static — measured from your starting balance — or trailing, measured from the highest equity reached, so profits you give back can still breach it. It passes as soon as equity reaches the profit target, provided any minimum-trading-days requirement is met. Two thousand runs turn a single lucky or unlucky attempt into an honest probability.

The multi-EA blind spot

This simulator assumes one aggregated edge. In reality, several EAs firing the same day stack daily-drawdown risk: a fixed per-trade risk × N strategies can breach the daily limit on a single bad session, even if each EA looks safe alone. Split your risk across strategies with the Per-Strategy Risk Allocator.

fail = equity ≤ dayStart·(1−dailyDD)  OR  equity ≤ start·(1−totalDD)
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One panel for the whole operation

AlgoSentinel runs your whole EA operation — it watches your strategies and your VPS around the clock and flags what needs attention.

  • EA Incubation Control — a clear verdict: incubate · promote · retire
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